Last year I won my office March Madness pool on the strength of my early round upsets, so this year I had a lot to live up to. Turns out, I picked the right number of upsets, but, regrettably, didn't get the right ones. For example...
I took a 13 over a 4 ... I had Pacific (so close), it turned out to be Bradley (props to my friend Ruth who is a proud Bradley alumna).
I took two 12s over 5s ... Texas A&M over Syracuse (who didn't see that coming?), check, Utah St. over Washington -- nope. Didn't see Montana beating Nevada.
I took two 11s over 6s ... UNC-W, check. SD St. gave it away at the end leaving George Mason to be the second 11 to advance.
I took two 10s over 7s: NC St. (yup) and Seton Hall (no, no, no!). Alabama destroyed Marquette in the other upset.
I took one 9 over an 8 (Eights seem to win a lot of these). It did turn out that way, except that I took Wisconsin and it turned out to be Bucknell (the school I almost went to).
I didn't see a 14 over a 3 this year, but that did happen, much to my shame and discredit.
So my theory stands ... getting this right is about 70% knowing historical statistics and 30% knowing anything about basketball. (I really would have cleaned up last year if I'd known Sean May played for UNC and not Duke).
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